Who are potential presidential contenders in the 2024 US elections

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ASTANA. KAZINFORM The United States heads to its presidential elections on November 5, 2024, which are set to elect its 47th president. With less than two years to go until the 2024 presidential election, reports continue to circulate about former presidents, officials and public figures announcing their intent to run for the election in what is already deemed to be one of the most heated political races in American history. Why does it matter for the world and what are the current forecasts are in the latest article of Kazinform.

Who can be the U.S. President?

According to the U.S. Constitution, the President of the United States holds the executive branch's power and acts as head of state and Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces.

The American Constitution has only three qualifications for the Presidency. The President must be at least 35 years of age, be a natural-born citizen, and have lived in the United States for at least 14 years.

Фото: Henryk Sadura/Getty Images

What powers does the U.S. President hold?

The President is both the head of state and head of government of the United States of America and Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces. He or she is responsible for the execution and enforcement of the laws created by Congress. There are fifteen executive departments that carry out the day-to-day administration of the federal government.

The President also has the right to appoint the heads of more than 50 independent federal commissions, such as the Federal Reserve Board or the Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as federal judges and ambassadors, among other federal offices.

The President also has the power to either sign the legislation into law or veto bills written by Congress.

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How are the Presidents elected?

Millions of Americans vote in a presidential election every four years. But the President is not directly elected by the people.

The President of the United States is elected through an indirect election in which citizens who are registered to vote in one of the fifty U.S. states or Washington, D.C., cast ballots not directly for the president but instead for members of the Electoral College. These electors then cast direct votes, known as electoral votes, for president.

The number of electors from each state is based on the number each state sends to Congress - equal to its two Senate seats plus the number of seats in the House of Representatives.

According to the 23rd Amendment in the American Constitution. the District of Columbia has three electoral votes. This brings the total number of electors in the Electoral College to 538.

However, the U.S. presidential election is a rather complicated process that spans at least a year.

The first stage in this process is primaries and caucuses when the major political parties - Democratic and Republican - hold primary elections and caucuses in each state to select their nominee for the presidency.

During the National Conventions, the political parties officially nominate their candidate for the presidency and adopt a party platform. This step usually marks the end of the primary election season and the beginning of the general election campaign.

Фото: Getty Images

Over the next few months, the presidential nominees conduct a nationwide campaign to secure the support of voters.

Election Day comes the Tuesday after the first Monday in November of the election year and eligible citizens cast their votes for president. In the upcoming presidential elections, this day falls on November 5, 2024.

The votes are then counted, and the candidate who wins the majority of votes in a state gets the state's Electoral College votes.

The Electoral College meets in December to cast its electoral votes for the president. The candidate who receives an absolute majority of electoral votes - at least 270 - is elected as the President of the US.

The inauguration ceremony when the President-elect takes the oath of office is usually on January 20th of the year following the election.

Who are potential candidates in the 2024 presidential elections

The candidates for the 2024 U.S. presidential elections have not been officially declared or nominated. But some have already announced their intent to run for the presidential office.

«Before the next 60th presidential election in the United States is just over a year and a half. According to the established tradition, they should take place in November 2024. However, even today, we can already see the intensification of the political struggle in Washington, which will only grow with time,» said Zhumabek Sarabekov, an expert at the Astana-based Institute of World Economy and Politics, in an interview for this story.

Фото: arapahoevotes.gov

Joe Biden

Current President Joe Biden has not yet formally declared his intent to run, but reports are circulating that he is most likely to run for re-election.

Biden won the 2020 U.S. presidential election by securing a majority of the Electoral College votes. In the election, Biden, the Democratic nominee, faced off against incumbent President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, managing to win several key battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which helped him secure a majority of the Electoral College votes. He came out with 306 electoral votes, compared to Trump's 232.

Photo: Patrick Semansky/AP Photo

He received over 81 million votes, or 51.3 percent of the total vote, while Trump received 74 million votes or 46.8 percent.

Biden became the oldest person to be inaugurated as President of the United States. By the time he runs for re-election (if he decides so), Biden is going to be 81 years old. And if re-elected, Biden would be 86 at the end of his second term.

Biden is expected to announce his final decision next week, most likely when he delivers his State of the Union address, which is slated for February 8.

«I think everybody wants me to run, but we’re going to have discussions about it,» Biden told reporters following the mid-term elections in November 2022.

In All-America Economic Survey conducted by CNBC among 801 Americans nationwide on November 26-30 and released in December 2022, the majority of Americans do not want to see either Biden or Trump running for office in 2024.

In particular, the survey found that 61 percent of the respondents think Trump should not run for the presidency, opposite to 30 percent who believe he should. 70 percent said Biden should not run for a second term, and only 19 percent supported Biden’s potential run.

Biden’s approval rating has also dropped to 42.3 percent after an incident with classified documents found at his home, the office he used after serving as vice president.

If Biden chooses not to run, it remains unclear who would seek the Democratic party nomination.

Donald Trump

Opposite to Biden, there is former U.S. president Donald Trump. He announced his intent to run for office back in November 2022.

«In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States,» Trump told a crowd of Republicans on November 16, 2022.

Trump served as the 45th President of the US from January 20, 2017, to January 20, 2021. In the 2016 election, Trump won 306 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton's 227, securing his victory.

However, Trump’s presidency was somewhat controversial and historically divisive, including his own role in inciting an attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.

Some people believe that he made significant achievements in certain areas, such as the economy and foreign policy, while others believe that his actions and rhetoric caused harm to the country and its citizens.

Some of Trump’s most significant and controversial issues included his hard-line stance on immigration, including his efforts to build a border wall with Mexico and impose a travel ban on several Muslim-majority countries, his intent to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, his decision to withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement, his protectionist trade policies, and his claims of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election that eventually led to a mob attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.

Photo:Jonathan Ernst, Reuters

His chances of getting a Republican nomination are grim, given the rising popularity of another potential Republican nominee Ron DeSantis, the current Florida governor.

In the same CNBC survey, 37 percent of Republicans say they do not want Trump to run for office in 2024, along with 88 percent of Democrats.

Ron DeSantis

Ron DeSantis is an American politician and former military officer. DeSantis, who is a member of the Republican Party, has served as the Governor of Florida since January 2019 and was a U.S. Representative for Florida's 6th congressional district from 2013 to 2018 before becoming a governor.

DeSantis is known for his conservative views and support for the Trump administration's policies. One of his recent controversial measures, just a few weeks after he began his second term as a governor, was when he blocked a new Advanced Placement course on African American studies from being taught in high schools, saying it violates state law and is historically inaccurate.

Фото: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

While he moved to give strength to Republicans’ traditionally not strong areas - education and environment, he is shown to push hard for traditionally conservative issues such as gun rights and tax cuts.

Political experts say he is likely to announce his intent to run in May or June when the legislative season comes to an end.

What might affect the presidential race

Sarabekov said the outcomes might affect ordinary Americans and countries beyond the US.

«Given the peculiarity of the moment, namely the sharper geopolitical struggle around Ukraine, where the United States is one of the key players, as well as the overall changing balance of power in the global economy, the outcome of the future elections will obviously have a strong impact on the fate not only of ordinary Americans but also most countries far beyond America,» said the expert.

Whomever people decide to cast their vote for, financial situation will be a determining factor, according to Sarabekov. According to a Pew Research Center survey conducted April 25-May 1, 2022, among 5,074 American adults, 7 in 10 Americans view inflation as a very big problem for the country, followed by the affordability of health care (55 percent) and violent crime (54 percent).

«By all appearances, the course of the forthcoming electoral struggle will be determined mainly by the state of the United States economy. As a rule, when it comes to whom to vote for, the financial situation sets the general mood of voters and electors. There remains great intrigue in this regard,» said the expert.

Photo:Shutterstock

He noted a record high inflation that the United States is facing. It reached 8.6 percent as of May 2022, the record high in the last 40 years. To counter high inflation, the U.S. government had to opt for tightened economic measures.

«However, because of such harsh measures, which lead to a decline in economic activity, the U.S. risks a recession. It is clear that the scenario of a crushing recession is unlikely, but the peak of economic problems may come just in the pre-election period, which will increase criticism of the current administration and be a good trump card in the hands of Biden's opponents,» said Sarabekov.

Another factor that can affect the pre-election sentiments of Americans is related to Ukraine. «We can see that support for Ukraine has already become one of the key issues on President Biden's foreign policy agenda. The candidates' actual debates will center around the success of this aid program,» he added.

U.S. relations with China might become another determining factor in the political race.

«Now it is clear that the rhetoric of the candidates will be very tough, and each of them will try to show themselves as the most formidable fighter against the ‘Chinese threat.’ As a consequence, in the pre- and post-election periods, we may see a new series of U.S. sanctions against China and, in general, a further deterioration of U.S.-China relations. For the global economy, this runs the risk of new disruptions in production and supply chains,» said the expert.

Photo:Li Bo/Xinhua

Speaking about potential Republic nominees, Sarabekov also pointed out the rising positions of DeSantis.

«Florida Governor Ron Desantis, whom many call a young and improved version of Trump himself, may run in the Republican Party primaries. According to the Washington Post, Desantis is already making preparations. It is not ruled out that former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence may also participate in the primaries. Biden's chances for re-election will largely depend on whom Republicans end up nominating as a single candidate,» said Sarabekov.

Almost two years before the election, chances are many factors might emerge that will shape the 2024 presidential race. As the election draws closer, it will be important for voters to closely evaluate the candidates and their positions on the issues that matter most to them, such as the economy, healthcare, and national security, among others.

Whether it is a prominent politician, a successful business leader, or a fresh face in the political arena, the next president will inherit a nation facing complex challenges and opportunities. But it also gives millions of people worldwide a chance to observe how the election unfolds and who ultimately emerges as the next leader of the United States.

Written by Assel Satubaldina



Photo:Getty Images
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