Kazakhstan’s real GDP growth to stand at 4.1% in 2020
The Vice Minister says that the forecast generation is generated based on GDP statistics for 2018; economic development results for 7 months of 2019 – 4.2% GDP growth, inflation within the corridor set – 5.4%, rise in investments at the level of 11%; updated global economic growth forecast and global commodity market trends.
In accordance with the data of the world financial organizations, in 2019, the consensus forecast for oil prices will be $65 per barrel. In 2020, it will drop to $63 per barrel.
In his words, three possible scenarios of economic development of Kazakhstan have been considered depending on changes in external parameters. He assumes that oil price will be at $55.
Real GDP growth is forecast at 4.1% in 2020. In 2024, it will reach 4.7%. The average annual GDP growth rate in 5 years will make 4.4%. GDP rise will be ensured by increasing gross capital formation, domestic consumption and exports.
«Investments will become a significant factor of maintaining economic growth. In industrial breakdown, the major share of growth will fall on non-oil sector. These are manufacturing industry, services and construction sectors. The average growth of these industries will be at the level of 4.7%. Contribution to GDP rise will be 3.5 pp,» the Vice Minister noted.
Oil production will increase from 90 million tons in 2020 to 100 million tons in 2024 due to the expansion of the Tengiz, Karachaganak, Kashagan fields and the commissioning of offshore fields. Nominal GDP will be 75trln tenge in 2020 and 106trln tenge in 2024,» the Vice Minister noted.
Madi Takiyev also informed that per capita GDP in 2020 will comprise $10.5thousand and will rise to 14.3thousand in 2024. Targeted annual inflation corridor will be at 4.6% in 2020-2021 and 3.5% in 2022-2024. Unemployment will drop to 4.7% in 2024.