Kazakhstan’s National Bank expects country’s exports and imports to drop in 2020
Addressing the Senate session on revisions to the 2020/22 national budget, Mr Baimagambetov noted that the projections of the country’s monetary policy figures are based on the current global economy situation which is still vulnerable to external shocks in the period of high uncertainty. According to him, the coronavirus pandemic will continue to affect the global economy in the medium term.
He also said that the geopolitical factors such as trade wars between the US and China, sanctions against Russia, and so on, would create additional pressure on the global economy. According to him, global financial and commodity market volatility amid growing fears over decreasing paces of the global economy, especially oil market is also to affect the global economy situation. He noted that the US presidential elections as well as the US's stimulus packages are an important risk factor for outside markets.
According to the Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the country’s exports will drop by 21.7% to $45.4bn in 2020 due to the lower prices for oil and metals as well as the county’s obligation to cut its oil production under the OPEC+ agreement. The imports are said to fall by 15.5% to $33.8bn in 2020, which is attributable to the slowing pace of the implementation of investment projects mainly in the oil and gas sector and declining demand from the population and businesses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.