Kazakhstan’s gas sector may face crisis in two years
«In 2024 the country’s gas sector may face a crisis. First, we forecast gas shortage in 2024. Domestic market demand will surpass the available gas reserves by 1.7bn cubic meters. We need to launch prompt actions. Otherwise, gas export will be stopped in 2023,» Chairman of QazaqGas National Company JSC Sanzhar Zharkeshov said at the Governmental Hour in the Majilis.
According to him, the shortage is caused by increasing number of new large consumers, including conversion of thermal power plants to gas (Thermal Power Plant 1 and Thermal Power Plant 2 in Almaty), joining of new gas chemical facilities (Samruk-Kazyna Ondeu LLP, WestGasOil etc.) and new commercial consumers to gas supply. Secondly, financial sustainability of the national gas operator is expected to deteriorate in 2022. In 2021, QazaqGas managed to compensate for 162bn tenge of domestic market losses due to transportation and export revenues.
«However, in 2022, gross profit will decrease to 62bn tenge since the domestic market losses are expected to reach 176bn tenge, and incomes will fall due to exports reduction. We need to launch urgent measures,» Sanzhar Zharkeshov said.
In his words, from 2022 to 2030 commercial gas reserve base should be expanded. By 2022 the available reserves made 25.6bn cubic meters including 1.7bn cubic meters produced by TCO which should be shifted to the domestic market.
As he explained, there is no understanding with the TCO yet, since it intends to export gas, while the country needs additional volumes to assure domestic market.
«Up to 200mn cubic meters of gas will be produced at Urikhtau, Pridorozhnoye, Rozhkovskoye and other gas deposits beginning from 2023. Due to this, gas output is expected to increase to 1.7bn cubic meters by 2027. Kashagan Gas Processing Plant with the capacity of 1bn cubic meters, is expected to produce 0.7bn cubic meters from 2024. From 2026, we plan to reduce gas re-injection at Tengiz and Karachaganak, as a result of which gas reserve base will increase to 5bn cubic meters,» he added.