Kazakhstan oil production to decline in 2019
"Oil production will decline by 1.4 million tons YOY or 1.5 percent: 90.4 million tons in 2018 and 89 million tons in 2019. This causes lower growth paces in the mining industry," Ruslan Dalenov said, presenting the refinement of the forecast for the 2019 key macroeconomic indicators and the 2019-2021 budget parameters to the Cabinet.
He highlighted that the major factors for the adjustment of the 2019 macroeconomic indicators forecast are the publication of 2018 GDP data, the changes in the mining industry and service sector trends.
"In 2018, GDP reached KZT 58.8 trillion. It is a good basis for assessing the year 2019," he underlined.
At the same time, the minister said, higher growth (4.8%) is expected in the service sector. The foundation for the service sector growth is an increase in domestic demand.
"With due account for external and internal factors, the 2019 basic parameters within the framework of the forecast are maintained at the previously approved level: the oil price is $55 a barrel; the Kazakhstani Tenge exchange rate is KZT 370 per $1; the target corridor of annual inflation is 4-6%," Ruslan Dalenov informed.
The growth forecasts for agriculture (6.2%), construction (3.7%), trade (4.3%), transportation and warehousing (3.8%) are also maintained as previous.
The growth of industry will be 1.6%. Alongside this, the manufacturing industry will grow more than the mining industry.
The forecast for exports was increased by $0.3 billion to $54.4 billion (previously $54.1 billion). The imports outlook remained at $32.9 billion.
"Taking into account the above-mentioned development factors, 2019 real GDP growth is estimated at 3.8%. Nominal GDP in 2019 is projected at KZT 64.3 trillion, which is KZT 323.5 billion higher than the previous estimate. GDP per capita will be $9,409," said Ruslan Dalenov.