Kazakh central bank: KZT rate affected by devaluation expectations, experts’ statements
"From August 21 to September 6, 2017, the tenge exchange rate against the US dollar has weakened 2.6%. This situation arose amid the excess demand for foreign currency with banks, companies, and the population over the supply. Under the free-floating rate of tenge and the National Bank's minimized participation in currency trading, such a situation results in an automatic weakening of the rate," the financial regulator's statement reads.
The devaluation expectations, provoked and heated by statements of individual experts, made a negative impact amid the stable fundamental factors determining the exchange rate of the national currency on a mid-term horizon (oil prices and exchange rates in the trade partner countries).
The National Bank was selling foreign currency due to lack of supply. In August, the net amount of the National Bank's interventions reached $70 million. In the first week of September, the National Bank carried out interventions to sell foreign currency as well. The information on the monthly results will be published in early October.
The situation stabilized on September 5-6. According to the National Bank's forecasts, the tenge rate against the US dollar will remain at current levels if oil prices do not drop below $50 a barrel. As to the Russian ruble rate, the value will not exceed 59-60 rubles per US dollar. Moreover, the fact that the current exchange rate against the ruble is undervalued opens the door for adjustment.