IMF expects significant growth of Kazakh GDP in 2018
According to the forecast, the growth of Gross Domestic Product will equal to 3.4pct in 2018. Already this year it will reach 2.5 per cent.
The optimism of the IMF experts reflects higher oil production and the effect of substantial fiscal stimulus spending.
The sharp exchange rate depreciation in late 2015-early 2016 triggered a surge in consumer prices, but inflation has come down to levels consistent with the National Bank of Kazakhstan's target range, as IMF considers.
As to the non-oil sector of the economy, the growth is expected to gradually pick up to 4 percent, benefiting from structural reforms and a resumption of bank lending. Uncertainty, however, is high, as the economy remains vulnerable to commodity price swings and especially to a sustained decline in oil prices.
Altogether, the experts commended the authorities' policy response, which helped Kazakhstan weather the impact of lower oil prices and slower growth in key trading partners. However, Directors noted that growth prospects are constrained by vulnerabilities arising from swings in commodity prices and long-standing structural weaknesses. They emphasized that policy efforts ahead should focus on strengthening the macroeconomic frameworks, addressing financial sector issues, and implementing reforms to boost and diversify growth.
Recall that IMF forecast regarding Kazakh GDP growth in 2016 was more pessimistic expecting just 0.6%.