Analytics and state policy – interview with KazISS Chief
Mr. Tukumov, could you please tell us , what role do such analytical centers play in the country’s development?
Without analytics, forecasting and calculations in state policy, it is impossible to shape development plans for any country, to see the opportunities, risks and threats requiring out attention. The demand in analytics grows year by year. Analyticial centers create even news agencies, like CNN, Al Jazeera. And what about a state? If there is no analytical center, the process of state policy management decays in all spheres. Analytics forms a basis for the adoption of adequate decisions. The most important for us, for the KazISS is to prepare both operational and strategic analytics for the Head of State, for the President’s Executive Office. Our work is often invisible for a wider public, everything is done under the mark «For Official Use Only,» and «Confidential.» This is a very restricted official information. Many think tanks of the world, including those in developed countries, are operating in this way. I don’t think that RAND, the world’s oldest analytical corporation, unfolds all its analytical materials.
Do you consider the possibility of sharing data with a wider public, with society?
KazISS is a part of society. We live in its rhythm and see a big demand for new approaches, openness, and quality public expertise. For this reason we intend to publish as more information as possible, including in sociology and in regards to the most pressing problems. Although, I agree that we lack public analytics, we admit it and try to solve this issue. Now we are developing our website and we are present almost in all social media. We want to develop content for public use, including sociological studies. Last year, we significantly advanced in this issue. We saw a rise in the number of unique visitors, including foreigners, of our website.
What areas will be priority ones for KazISS in 2023?
KazISS is Kazakhstan’s leading analytical center. Indeed, it has succeeded as a brand, an international brand. Without false modesty I can say that that we are a leading analytical center both of Kazakhstan and Central Asia and the CIS, which is proved by world rankings. We should maintain this brand with quality research, strong personnel and analytics. We need to set more ambitious goals.
Throughout the last year, while addressing various conferences, I often said, that Kazakhstan needs to do much in studying the foreign policy. We have no schools on China, Central Asia or Russia. They are our neighbors, and we must know them. There is no school on the U.S., European countries, and Muslim world. One of our priorities set for 2023 is to transform the KazISS’ structure and establish the centers, which will specialize on foreign policy, domestic policy, economy, i.g. those which will focus on global economic studies. We are in a constant search for a positive experience, which can be applied in Kazakhstan in its transformational period. We also analyze what risks and threats are posed by the global situation, the aggravating militarization and growth of conflicts in elsewhere around the world.
The second moment is information search. Analysts always work with big data bases. Sitting in an office and surfing the Internet, you will never become a highly qualified expert others listen to. Therefore, we need to study Kazakhstan and understand how some or another region lives, what problems they face. We need to conduct sociological studies and communicate with local residents. The Head of State announced the need in decentralization – a region’s problems must be solved at the level of this region. We have already launched such studies. This year I would like to initiate the opening of some KazISS branches in regional centers. At the first stage, I would like to see our branches in North Kazakhstan region, Aktobe, Turkistan or Shymkent cities. In an ideal scenario, branches should be opened in all regions.
Another important moment is the interaction with international partners, exchanging opinions, approaches, studying the methodology, holding international conferences not for a show, but for discussing openly the most acute problems. For instance, why there is still a visa regime and some unsoved near-border issues between the Central Asian countries, although we are fraternal nations.
It is not accidental that our first activity in 2023 will be the expert meeting with Central Asian partners in January. We will discuss how we all – Kazakhs, Uzbeks, Kyrgyz, Tajiks, and Turkmens – see our future in 2030.
Third, KazISS has always been a talent foundry. We need to attract talented young people, to create conditions and perspectives for them, to arouse their interest in the work, and retain the professionals, since we should know the needs of groups of the population. KazISS has always been and will be a talent foundry for the ministries and departments, NGOs and international organizations.
Speaking of new branches and reorganization. Does it mean extra funds will be needed?
Funds that are already at our disposal are to be used. All this is done within the existing capabilities.
- What about the personnel…
The problem with personnel was, is, and will be. It’s true for all spheres. It’s not easy to find good reporters, doctors, and teachers. No one will hand you the ready ones, it is better to bring young ones and train them. There are Bolashak graduates as well as those who graduated from decent Kazakhstani universities. We have many willing to work at KazISS, so you’ll never be short of choices here.
Given an increasing need for analytics attraction and formation of analysts is one of the key tasks of the State as well as not an easy one. As you know, many are not keen on writing, but into organizational work. And I’m sure that anyone who mastered their writing will always be in demand and have an edge in life.
-Is it true to say that KazISS is a promising place for young professionals?
Totally true. It’s promising from a variety of perspectives. First, run under the President, the Institute ensures scholars can satisfy their curiosity, go ahead with their practice, as well as take part in making decisions and their preparation in a certain way. Practical analytics with science-State interaction is in place. Second, the state bodies take an interest in recruiting young ones from KazISS into the President's Executive Office, Foreign Ministry, and other structures. Our graduates work almost in all bodies. Recently, our (KazISS) employee became the ecology and natural resources minister, one of the young ministers [Ed.note - Zulfiya Suleimenova]. As we are to celebrate our anniversary, all who ever worked at KazISS is being counted as well as their work experience is being analyzed. A very interesting statistic. I hope it comes out soon.
What are the studies experts at KazISS are currently working on?
We’ve started doing serious research on economic processes and their impact on Kazakhstan. Among them, inflation, pandemic, and disrupted logistics chains. We should predict not only unexpected scenarios but also obvious ones. Perspectives are also taken into account. If we talk about serious economic reforms, then experience of countries that already underwent such reforms is studied. It is important to take the best and avoid mistakes.
This also involves political modernization issues. The country is to hold elections of district akims (governors). We studied in detail the country’s experience in election of village akims, looked at mistakes, problems, and positive things to prepare for elections of district akims.
Speaking of foreign policy, we’re rather interested in issues of our neighboring countries. Among them, Central Asia, happenings in China, Russia, as well as establishment of relations according to our pragmatic foreign policy and interests. They are not easy studies, requiring high-qualified experts.
We’re constantly studying sociology, our society and its needs, concerns, things that draw their attention as well as things the regional governors and government should pay attention to.
How do you arrange the work with the society? What opinion surveys do you carry out?
KazISS does not carry out any opinion surveys, we do order them. There are numerous organizations that provide such surveys. We work with those materials, we conduct cross-analysis, set the trends based on the data received which prove their relevance and credibility.
We have constant opinion surveys in all regions of Kazakhstan. There are telephone surveys, regular expert polls. Those are mainly for official use and land on the table of the leadership of the President’s Executive Office, that is why we are not always able to publish them. Some of them we do post on our website. One of our goals this year is to publish our opinion surveys for a wider public. We are planning big opinion surveys this year and hope we will be able to make them public.
Last year was full of political events. Qantar (January events) accelerated political reforms. What do you think 2022 gave Kazakhstan?
Last year in fact laid the foundation for more Just Kazakhstan, but the key is that the President said that political reforms are needed to carry out economic ones. Such a task has never been set before. Economics comes first, then politics. Now we understand that political groundwork lays the foundation for economic reforms. There is no other way.
The nationwide referendum was held, the constitution was amended, the Presidential elections took place, and the parliamentary elections are ahead. It will be a political reboot not just to renovate but also to carry out important economic, and social reforms this year. All this is to let us take opportunities that are offered, including cargo traffic, construction of infrastructure projects, moving towards diversification, and shifting away from the exports of primary goods. The exports of primary goods are always big volatility and indeterminism. It is a destiny for nations with an unpredictable economy, if we want to become a foreseeable economy, a compound economy, then we should move towards diversification. Do you know why the U.S. produces much more oil than Kazakhstan? At the same time, the country does not depend on the tone of the oil market for they developed lots of other sectors that let stabilize the economy. It includes agriculture, new technologies, etc., while simple economies with just exports of raw materials are always unstable. Ultimately the point at issue is the people’s welfare. I believe we should move ahead.
Most but not all will depend here on those who will execute. It is a matter of human capital. We may set ambitious tasks but fail to achieve them due to human capital skills. That’s why the President assigned to attract as many young people as possible, including those who studied abroad, who will be able to carry out those important reforms. I like the meritocratic approach when everyone, regardless of gender or age has the same opportunities and get what they deserve. The U.S. is strong in it attracting the best. The analyses claim that almost a third of all research in the country is done by immigrants. It seems to me we should change our mentality and move away from migrantophobia. Kazakhstan has a cautious attitude to all migrants. What I am saying are not unskilled migrants, refugees. We should create conditions for highly skilled migrants to make them arrive in Kazakhstan and take out citizenship. In fact, we join the race for talents. For example, Great Britain grants visas to graduates from the world’s best universities. Relying on our own, we may heavily slow the process of development.
Many lay emphases that Kazakhstan is a young country. The average age is 31.8, we have a demographic potential to grow further but the window of demographic opportunities does not last forever. Various research shows that the window may gradually decrease by 2030-2050. The more society is urbanized, the more people earn, and the less they want to have children. It is the practice of all developed nations of the world. For example, sales of adult diapers in Japan have outsold those of baby diapers. The issues of attracting migrants will after a while come before us. We need to think about it.
The information appeared recently on social media saying that Uzbekistan becomes more attractive for well-known international companies, such as Google, Apple, and Meta than Kazakhstan.
I do not wholly agree with the statement of the question that it is more attractive. I agree that it has cheaper labor, and higher population density. Besides, Uzbekistan made preferences for international business. This issue should be thoroughly studied, but generally speaking, I am glad for Uzbekistan as it is a fraternal country. The Head of State visited Uzbekistan recently which speaks for allied relations between the nations. What is good for Uzbekistan will at some point be good for Kazakhstan and vice versa. There is no need to create artificial (induced) competition between the largest countries of Central Asia.
Kazakhstan takes the lead in attracting foreign investments in Central Asia. It is crucial to compare how much money Kazakhstan attracted and in what sectors. Almost all global brands are present in Kazakhstan, we move steadily ahead, and we should certainly not relax.
On this occasion, I would like to remind you that on January 20 the Foreign Ministry and the KazISS will hold an important conference themed «A vision of the future of Central Asia». It will bring together experts from Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan to debate the ways and prospects for cooperation, and development of the region.
As for human capital assets, are the recent appointments of the President of young ministers justified?
Fresh faces come, quite principled ones. It encourages optimism. For example, the Ecology and Natural Resources Minister as a young woman has already demonstrated important leadership practices. The other day Maksim Spotkai, who speaks Kazakh well, was appointed the chief of staff of the Kazakh Senate.
The President made significant appointments which reflect that a course has been taken for a significant rejuvenation of the political management elite, but at the same time, there are serious components of meritocracy, when senior colleagues are appointed along with the young, for example, the Minister of Enlightenment - a person with experience. I guess there will be further personnel solutions as well as in the economic sector. Human capital assets and human capital macro control issues at large require new approaches and insight, but the Head of State fulfilled some other issues. The KazISS will further study this direction and put forward human capital development suggestions.
Thank you for the interview!